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Tag: Flu

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Published on 1 Comment on TEotWaWKI TV Review: After Armageddon
After Armageddon on the History Channel
After Armageddon on the History Channel

Aired on The History Channel

I DVR'd a bunch of stuff that aired during "Apocalypse Week" on the History Channel back in January. I was reluctant to watch this one since it's a talking-head-SMEs-with-reenactors show typical of the History and Discover channels. I was pleasantly surprised, however, that it was both informative and entertaining.

The show posits an outbreak of a virulent disease that wipes out the vast majority of humankind. We follow the experiences of a family during and after the pandemic, through multiple cycles of delay, deliberation and action stretching over years. Their experiences clearly demonstrate fundamental aspects of a survival mentality as well as practical advice.

The show reinforced some basic skills that we should all be familiar with now:

  • Don't be a picky eater
  • Look for water where ever it may be
  • Beware of strangers

I was bemused to learn a new way to gather fuel that would have saved me many a foul mouthful of gas: Puncture the tank and drain it. Why didn't I think of that? I feel like a n00b. If you don't need the vehicle containing the gas, this is much easier than siphoning. I would imagine, though, that you'd need to be careful not to create a spark.

More important than the tactics of survival are the approaches they recommend:

  1. If you have a valuable post-SHTF skill, it's probably best that you hide that fact until you'r certain of your position. You wouldn't want to be held against your will just because the town you passed through doesn't have a doctor.
  2. Don't be stingy with your help, but remember your priorities. Lending aid when it would cost you little may pay you back many times over later.
  3. Understand that the old way of life is over. We were nice back then because we were well off. We could rely on people's good behavior because there was a long term cost to screwing someone over. But when your event horizon is no more than a day or two into the future, those long term concerns evaporate. This makes bad behavior easier.

Those who fail to grok all of these points tend not last long when TEotWaWKI hits.

Finally, the show ably addresses the issue of scale. Knowledge of the extent of the problem — the area affected and how long it will last — greatly increases the chances of survival. However, most people do not have access to this information or reject it when they do. It is hard to part with the world as you knew it. Most people were strongly invested in it: a nice house, a good job and kids in school. I've heard many comments criticizing the family's failure to act in a timely manner. But I understand, it's hard to let go.

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Published on 4 Comments on TEotWaWKI Book Review: Earth Abides
Earth Abides by George R. Stewart
Earth Abides by George R. Stewart

by George R. Stewart

I have a stack of old school TEotWaWKI books written long before SHTF. If this book is any indicator of quality, I'm in for a long haul if I follow through on my intention to read them all. My problems with this book lie not just in the advice offered, but primarily in the fact that the characters are extremely boring.

The author posits a world brought to its knees by a virus. The main character, Isherwood Williams, was laid low by a snake bite when the pandemic swept away most of mankind, so he was not around to witness the unfolding catastrophe. Upon recovery, he stumbles through the world like a drunk waking up from an epic bender. The book follows him as he embarks on an odyssey from California to New York and then back to the west coast, where he settles and lives out the remaining decades of his life. The only reason I did not toss this book unfinished, is that I found the window into 1950s America to be fascinating, if somewhat repugnant.

First of all, do NOT look to this book for advice. You will find nothing here worthwhile. Some of the lessons taught:

  • Canned food lasts forever, so don't bother with farming or hunting/gathering.
  • Do not look to the library for reference material should you actually set out to improve your life. A real man can figure it out on his own.
  • Whatever you do, do not accept the mentally defective into your group. If you are stuck with one, you should kill or run the person off.

Ish would frequently give impassioned speeches about something that they must do, but there would be no follow up. As long as folks' immediate needs were being met, nobody did anything to improve their future prospects. For example, the water flowed freely from everyone's faucets: fine, dandy, what do we need to worry about? Water mains start breaking: no problems, some people still get water. Slowly but surely, their options dwindled until they were forced to gather water from streams. This process was repeated time and again with food, shelter and other necessities. No wonder their civilization ceased to exist.

To call this anti-intellectualism would be to imply an active opposition to thought. It is true the they discouraged their children from reading too much because it might make them think too much. For the most part, though, it was just laziness. Combine this with their opposition to anything sensual and you have a recipe for death by ennui. In addition to the above mentioned lack of desire for good food, sex was only for procreation. Anyone who seemed to exhibit desire, was castigated, labelled a bad person.

It's a wonder, given this window into life half a century before the true end of the world, that we didn't experience it much soon.

Published on

From what I can tell, the public health establishment has done an excellent job in dealing with Influenza A (H1N1). So much so, that it appears many people do not believe it was ever a serious crisis. When the flu makes its re-appearance this fall — and it will — I believe it will be made worse because of those who will not take the necessary steps out of a false sense of security.

Therein lies the problem with preventing end of the world scenarios: If you take the right steps, many people may not even realize that the end was averted. If you don't, you probably won't be around to rue your inaction.

Case in point: the movie Quarantine. How did most people react to this story? "How could you lock up those innocent folks and condemn them to a horrible death?" This is probably why, when the Solanum virus made its reappearance, the outbreak quickly went worldwide.

For a more conventional example, consider the Johnstown Flood. Prior to that disaster in 1889, the engineer in charge of the dam could have dredged out a section to allow the water to drain out in a controlled fashion. This, however, would have then required an expensive repair effort. He probably would have lost his job because no one would have known of the averted disaster, the lives saved. Instead, fearing for his job, he chose to do nothing in the hope that it would all work out. Over 2,200 people we killed in the ensuing flood.

So, what does it take to do the right thing? You have to assume that doing so will cost you greatly, anything from losing your job to your life. You have to be willing to make that sacrifice. A good backup plan couldn't hurt when your faced with a personal SHTF as a result of folks not realizing that the negative they face now is no where near as bad as the one you just averted.

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Published on 3 Comments on TEotWaWKI Book Review: World Made by Hand
World Made by Hand
World Made by Hand

by James Howard Kunstler
My neighbor Jim tipped me off to this book, but only half recommended it. It's a work of fiction written pre-SHTF by an author who wrote several speculative non-fiction works about how the world would probably end. Interestingly enough, the guy never mentioned zombies. It's what you don't expect that always gets you!

The novel takes place in the world Kunstler describes in his book, The Long Emergency. It covers one summer in a small, upstate New York town about a decade after TEotWaWKI.

Jim wasn't big on the book's main character (Robert Earle), believing that a man who -- in my friend's words -- lacked balls would not have lasted long. While my neighbor is correct that how Robert Earle reacted to various events would not have boded well for him in our reality, the world Kunstler describes is quite different. And I'm not talking just about the lack of undead.

First of all, the end came gradually. Over the course of years, through a terrorist nuke here and a decline in trade there, the world just fizzled out (I guess that tells you how bad the Zombie War was if a nuke or two is not that big of a deal). In fact, as Kunstler writes, some even believe that society could return to the old days, if they could just catch a break or two. This contrasts sharply with our reality. It became clear rather quickly -- over the course of just a few days, in fact -- that the old world was dead. Once you've lost such hope, violence becomes easier. If people, even the bad guys, believe that there could be a return, one is more willing to act with restraint.

Another critical difference is that we still retain much of the infrastructure from the old world. Other than that first, hungry winter, food is not an issue. We have a fully functioning electrical grid and an even better medical establishment. In the World Made by Hand, you had to grow your own food, live by the rising and setting of the sun and were probably dead if you encountered a serious medical issue. You could not effectively be a bad guy in that world, at least not extremely evil. You couldn't afford to get hurt in an encounter. Also, it was much more efficient to trade for food or grow it yourself than it is to steal it, at least in the long run.

I did thoroughly enjoy this book and appreciate the lessons I took from it:

  1. You should live on fecund land: something with good soil, easy access to water and hunting/fishing grounds.
  2. You should have practical skills: anything that allows you to build/maintain stuff or something in the healing arts.
  3. You need a functioning society, adherence to the rule of law.

This book has lessons worth learning.

An interesting coincidence: The author makes reference to a deadly flu pandemic originating in Mexico, years before this event actually happened.

I go in to great detail after the jump, including a description of what I would do differently, but beware, there are SPOILERS:
...continue reading "TEotWaWKI Book Review: World Made by Hand"

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Published on 3 Comments on Swine Flu Outbreak in Mexico

We are so focused on the zombie threat — even though the war effectively ended nearly a decade ago and we have not had a serious outbreak in several years — that we can forget that the undead are not all that could threaten our survival. I have may eyes on Mexico at the moment and the reports of a thousand plus cases of flu that are affecting not just the young, old and those with compromised immune systems, but also healthy adult. It appears to be spreading to the north.

I can fight a zombie; germs, not so much.

The New York Times has a good summary of the current situation: As Nations Try to Contain Flu, N.Y. Cases Are Confirmed.