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Category: Bill Drinkmore

Discussion of the personal experiences of me, Zacharias William Drinkmore.

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Last year, I wrote about the timeline and life cycle of a TEotWaWKI event. I'd like to provide a more depth to this.

The first ingredient to any end of the world scenario is the affected population. This could range from a single individual all the way up to the human race. Whose world is ending? In this approach, nearly every story has a TEotWaWKI element to it. Not only that, but every individual proceeds through the course of events at their own pace.

The other main ingredient is an event that changes the rules by which the affected population lives. It could be the diagnosis of cancer in a spouse or the start of a nuclear war. The key is that the phenomenon is one that requires those impacted to rediscover how to survive in this world. As an added complication, multiple events may be in play at once either through the first event triggering others or just plain bad luck.

So, to assess the state of the TEotWaWKI, you must ask the following questions on a continual basis:

TEotWaWKI States
TEotWaWKI States
    1. Is there an event?

The event could cease to be an issue for no apparent reason whatsoever. However, that may just uncover a new event that's about to wreak havoc.

    1. Is the affected population aware of the event?

While, effectively, for the world at large, this is no different than no event at all, it makes for a great story and after-the-fact second guessing. "If only..."

    1. Do those impacted know what the problem is?

The level of fear is several orders of magnitude greater if you have no idea what you're facing or how to deal with it.

    1. Do they know how to solve it?

Just because you know what to do doesn't mean you know how to d o it or that you even have the capacity to act.

  1. Do they succeed?
TEotWaWKI State Transitions
TEotWaWKI State Transitions

When you have multiple such events, the one in the most critical state is what monopolizes people's attention. This is indicated by the state with the highest number.

For example, human society understands the problem of the dead rising to eat the living and are working toward a resolution. However, all of those responsible for maintaining the world's nuclear power plants have been zombified, so the world is annihilated when those plants melt down.

While the specifics vary greatly within the context of the event in question, in general, the transition events fall into these categories:

    • Trigger

The event is born.

    • Crisis

The event has busted loose.

    • Knowledge

The problem is understood and possible solutions may be implemented.

    • Resolution

The world returns to normality.

    • Apocalypse

The world ends in a big bang.

    • Failure

The world ends in a whimper.

Wheels within Wheels

This can get quite complex if you think of every single person cycling through this state machine. Individual's awareness of the problem and how to solve it varies. Indeed, the problems themselves vary for each person. The deft story-teller will weave multiple threads form an astounding, yet believable tale.

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Published on 1 Comment on Was TEotWaWKI Inevitable Due to Stupidity?

The consensus is that so many random factors played out to our disadvantage that preventing the outbreak that led to TEotWaWKI was impossible. We should be thankful that humanity survived, even in its much reduced state.

I'm thinking, perhaps not. Here's a story from a 2009 edition of the Washington Post: Infectious Diseases Study Site Questioned . That's smart, "locate a ... research facility for highly infectious pathogens in a tornado-prone section of Kansas."

I'm hoping that the catastrophe culled out those with such flawed thought processes. As for the present, I would rather we didn't engage in such research, though I suppose we could learn valuable lessons. We must assume, though, that the worst will happen. Not only should we not locate these facility in dangerous regions, they should be isolated from the population, too.

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Published on 2 Comments on TEotWaWKI Game Review: Zombies!!!
Zombies!!!
Zombies!!!

Designed by Todd Breitenstein, published by Twilight Creations, Inc.

I take it as a good sign that a game such as this is no longer considered to be in bad taste. We've moved on from the Zombie Wars enough so that we can view some of the events tongue in cheek. And now we can game them.

Zombies!!! has 2 to 6 players vying to be the first one to the helicopter pad in order to make an escape. Between you and safety, though, are a horde of the undead and your opponents. Just because this is no longer in bad taste, though, doesn't make it a good game. I have some serious problems with it.

The designer brings some innovative ideas to the table. The board starts with just one tile that makes up the city center. Each turn, a player draws a new tile and uses it to build out the city. Towards the end of the deck is the helicopter pad. Once that is revealed and placed, it's a race to the finish. And therein lies the problem. In addition to the tiles, each player has a hand of event cards that either help you or hurt your opponents. You would think that the race to the helicopter is the end game, but, in fact, it was just the half way point. Those event cards make it nigh on impossible to finish. I enjoyed, barely, the one game I played, but no more.

The other problem I had with the game is that it imparts the wrong lessons. I don't care what is in a hospital, police or fire station. During an outbreak, I would never even approach those locations. Also, while I agree that healthy humans of nefarious intent are a far greater menace than the undead, a trustworthy ally is invaluable. In this game, not only do you have no incentive to help others, it's actually in your best interest to see them become the next course on the all-you-can-eat zombie buffet. Ultimately, this is why I've given this game a low rating.

What? This is supposed to be just a game? OK, I guess. Perhaps I haven't moved on.

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Published on 1 Comment on TEotWaWKI Soundtrack: The Trooper by Iron Maiden

Piece of Mind by Iron Maiden
Piece of Mind by Iron Maiden
I bow to the popular will on the selection of this song. My original favorite from Iron Maiden was Run to the Hills from Number of the Beast. However, I realize that a song about fleeing is, perhaps, not the best motivator when one needs to make a stand. Truthfully, any song from this band will get my blood up for a good fight with the undead, and The Trooper is a good one.

The Bugle sounds and the charge begins
But on this battlefield no one wins
The smell of acrid smoke and horses breath
As I plunge on into certain death.

You'll still hear this played on the radio, but it rings of cliché. It is fashionable among the younger generation to make fun of this song, but if I'm alone and it comes on, I do puff out my chest and look for the nearest weapon at hand.

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Published on 3 Comments on There Are No Post-SHTF Picky Eaters

I was at a birthday feast for that old geezer Javi. I kid! He's 5 years younger than me, but I'm far better looking. We go way back, having served together in the final clearing operations on the east coast.

Anyways, we were all digging into some excellent Rognons de Veau like it was our last meal. — That's veal kidneys for you philistines out there. — I noted that, in the old days, this probably wouldn't have been on the menu since most people turned their noses up at offal. In fact, I commented, there does not seem to be any picky eaters or even vegetarians these days. Well, what a conversation that sparked! Several interesting tidbits came out of this.

First, about half the people present claimed to be former picky eaters, one was even a vegan, but they changed their habits out of necessity. If survival means having to eat that piece of cow liver, you will hold your nose and do it. For many, their dietary restrictions were a result of not wanting to try new stuff. They discovered that most formerly avoided foods were actually quite good.

Second, and most surprising, several at the table new of people who died as an indirect result of their pickiness. It was never a direct choice of death over okra. Rather, having passed up nutritious oddities, they either didn't have the strength when it was needed or took ill. Their inability to master the gag reflex cost them their lives.

Finally, the conversation ended when I asked if anyone partook of human flesh. All quickly said no, but there were a few downcast eyes and talk changed to the upcoming home stand of the Rappahannock Raiders.

For the record, I never ate people. However, I was never in a position where my life depended on that choice. I don't think I'd have a problem doing it. I will eat anything. And I am a leg man. I'd get hung up, though, on how to ethically harvest that food.

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Published on 1 Comment on TEotWaWKI Soundtrack: Zombie by The Cranberries
No Need to Argue by The Cranberries
No Need to Argue by The Cranberries

YES, I realize this song is about the pre-SHTF troubles in Northern Ireland (interesting that we now think of that horrible time as less than completely catastrophic). And, NO, I do not think of this song as being about the undead. It still strikes the chord which the author, Dolores O'Riordan, intended: those who have died in the violence of the outbreak, of whatever cause, haunt us, drive us insane. We must be careful not to lose sight of the fact that survival is not the ends, but the means to create a new life. If we are consumed by the violence that was necessary during the outbreak, we not only decrease our chances for survival, but also make it less likely that the new world will be worthwhile.

Oh, and it has a great, driving beat.

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Max Brooks, despite my past disagreements with him, got it right when he called attention to the Primary Enticement Mechanism (PEM). Once humanity counter-attacked, it seemed each group of survivors independently determined that loud, pulsating music served two purposes: The first, stated reason would be to lure the undead into a kill zone. The second, but most important reason was to psyche you up.

I have my own, personal playlist from the time that I served as a Sky Watcher. Whatever the artistic merits of these songs, they still get my blood up. Each song on the list has a personal story behind it. I will relate those as time allows.

TEotWaWKI Soundtrack

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From what I can tell, the public health establishment has done an excellent job in dealing with Influenza A (H1N1). So much so, that it appears many people do not believe it was ever a serious crisis. When the flu makes its re-appearance this fall — and it will — I believe it will be made worse because of those who will not take the necessary steps out of a false sense of security.

Therein lies the problem with preventing end of the world scenarios: If you take the right steps, many people may not even realize that the end was averted. If you don't, you probably won't be around to rue your inaction.

Case in point: the movie Quarantine. How did most people react to this story? "How could you lock up those innocent folks and condemn them to a horrible death?" This is probably why, when the Solanum virus made its reappearance, the outbreak quickly went worldwide.

For a more conventional example, consider the Johnstown Flood. Prior to that disaster in 1889, the engineer in charge of the dam could have dredged out a section to allow the water to drain out in a controlled fashion. This, however, would have then required an expensive repair effort. He probably would have lost his job because no one would have known of the averted disaster, the lives saved. Instead, fearing for his job, he chose to do nothing in the hope that it would all work out. Over 2,200 people we killed in the ensuing flood.

So, what does it take to do the right thing? You have to assume that doing so will cost you greatly, anything from losing your job to your life. You have to be willing to make that sacrifice. A good backup plan couldn't hurt when your faced with a personal SHTF as a result of folks not realizing that the negative they face now is no where near as bad as the one you just averted.

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Published on 3 Comments on TEotWaWKI Book Review: World Made by Hand
World Made by Hand
World Made by Hand

by James Howard Kunstler
My neighbor Jim tipped me off to this book, but only half recommended it. It's a work of fiction written pre-SHTF by an author who wrote several speculative non-fiction works about how the world would probably end. Interestingly enough, the guy never mentioned zombies. It's what you don't expect that always gets you!

The novel takes place in the world Kunstler describes in his book, The Long Emergency. It covers one summer in a small, upstate New York town about a decade after TEotWaWKI.

Jim wasn't big on the book's main character (Robert Earle), believing that a man who -- in my friend's words -- lacked balls would not have lasted long. While my neighbor is correct that how Robert Earle reacted to various events would not have boded well for him in our reality, the world Kunstler describes is quite different. And I'm not talking just about the lack of undead.

First of all, the end came gradually. Over the course of years, through a terrorist nuke here and a decline in trade there, the world just fizzled out (I guess that tells you how bad the Zombie War was if a nuke or two is not that big of a deal). In fact, as Kunstler writes, some even believe that society could return to the old days, if they could just catch a break or two. This contrasts sharply with our reality. It became clear rather quickly -- over the course of just a few days, in fact -- that the old world was dead. Once you've lost such hope, violence becomes easier. If people, even the bad guys, believe that there could be a return, one is more willing to act with restraint.

Another critical difference is that we still retain much of the infrastructure from the old world. Other than that first, hungry winter, food is not an issue. We have a fully functioning electrical grid and an even better medical establishment. In the World Made by Hand, you had to grow your own food, live by the rising and setting of the sun and were probably dead if you encountered a serious medical issue. You could not effectively be a bad guy in that world, at least not extremely evil. You couldn't afford to get hurt in an encounter. Also, it was much more efficient to trade for food or grow it yourself than it is to steal it, at least in the long run.

I did thoroughly enjoy this book and appreciate the lessons I took from it:

  1. You should live on fecund land: something with good soil, easy access to water and hunting/fishing grounds.
  2. You should have practical skills: anything that allows you to build/maintain stuff or something in the healing arts.
  3. You need a functioning society, adherence to the rule of law.

This book has lessons worth learning.

An interesting coincidence: The author makes reference to a deadly flu pandemic originating in Mexico, years before this event actually happened.

I go in to great detail after the jump, including a description of what I would do differently, but beware, there are SPOILERS:
...continue reading "TEotWaWKI Book Review: World Made by Hand"

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Published on 3 Comments on Swine Flu Outbreak in Mexico

We are so focused on the zombie threat — even though the war effectively ended nearly a decade ago and we have not had a serious outbreak in several years — that we can forget that the undead are not all that could threaten our survival. I have may eyes on Mexico at the moment and the reports of a thousand plus cases of flu that are affecting not just the young, old and those with compromised immune systems, but also healthy adult. It appears to be spreading to the north.

I can fight a zombie; germs, not so much.

The New York Times has a good summary of the current situation: As Nations Try to Contain Flu, N.Y. Cases Are Confirmed.