I used data from BALLOTPEDIA to perform analysis on the results from the November, 2017 election for the Virginia House of Delegates. The full set of original and derived data is available at data.bill-lenoir.com/VA-House-of-Delegates-Vote-2017.html.
Statements of Fact
From this data set, I believe these statements are true:
- 2,419,710 votes were cast for candidates on the ballot for all 100 Virginia House of Delegates elections.
- Democratic candidates for the House of Delegates received 53.9% of the total vote, but only 49% of the seats, while Republican candidates received 44.5% of the total vote, but 51% of the seats.
- The efficiency gap favors the Republicans by 15.93%.
- 40 races had only a single major party candidate on the ballot.
- 13 races had a 3rd party candidate on the ballot, none of whom came close to winning.
- The presence of a 3rd party candidate did not change the outcome of any of the races.
- 93 incumbents ran for re-election, 12 of whom lost (all Republicans).
It will be difficult, if not impossible for a party other than the Republicans to take control of the House of Delegates. 2017 was a wave election, unlikely to be repeated in the next election, which is the one that will select the Delegates who will perform the next reapportionment. This does not bode well for representative democracy.